Rebuilding or Reloading? Utah Jazz Preview and Predictions

Didn’t it just seem like we were watching the Utah Jazz being swept by the Los Angeles Lakers in May? Time flies but here we are the start of a new basketball season. So what are we looking at this year? No Carlos Boozer (thank heavens), no Kyle Korver (shouldn’t have let the best shooter in the league walk), and no Wesley Matthews (love the guy, but not for 32 million over 4 years). So with the new additions we have next year and with the roster set as of today, let’s take a look at the starting five and bench this year.

STARTING FIVE

PG – Deron Williams – Is there any debate about who’s starting at point guard? This was a no brainer like Ivan Drago beating Apollo Creed in Rocky IV. Deron Williams has solidified himself as the best point guard in the NBA. There isn’t a point guard in the league that can guard Williams one on one and Kobe Bryant gave it a shot in the playoffs with Phil Jackson removing him quickly. It’s finally his team, he’s the oil that makes the engine go, he’s the chocolate that goes on the sundae, and he’s worth every penny we are paying him.

SG – Raja Bell – He replaces the toughness at the shooting guard position we had last year with Wesley Matthews. Bell is a physical defender and he doesn’t back down from any player in the league. Kobe elbowed him a few years back and two plays later Bell Lawrence Taylor’d him when Bryant drove to the hoop. Not only does Bell replace the toughness, but he replaces the 3-point shooting we lost with Kyle Korver going to the Chicago Bulls. I cringed when I saw Korver had signed with the Bulls, but when Bell signed, I went to the stats on shooting. Bell for his career is a 37% 3-point shooter to Kyle Korver’s 40%. If Bell can stay healthy, which he wasn’t all of last year, than the Jazz will be in great shape at the shooting guard position.

SF – Andrei Kirilenko – If the 2003-04 Andrei Kirilenko surfaces this year than the Jazz could be scary good. Ever since the Jazz gave AK the 86 million dollar max deal back in 2004 he disappeared quicker than John Daly’s waistline. Kirilenko was an all-star that year, recorded a few 5x5 stat lines, and didn’t look like the lead singer from Def Leppard like he does now. As the best help side defender on this team, we need Kirilenko to return to his 2004 form. Swapping him and Paul Millsap between the SF and PF will be huge with Mehmet Okur still nursing his achilles injury.

PF – Paul Millsap – When Mehmet Okur comes back from injury, Millsap will head back to the bench, but for now he’s starting at the PF. Millsap is incredibly undersized and the Jazz have him listed at 6’8”. We both know that he’s not that tall and I will go out on a limb to say he’s only 6’6”. With that being said, Millsap is the best rebounder on this team, both offensively and defensively. Even though being undersized, he finds ways to score and defend. I do worry that Millsap may have taken it personal that the Jazz went out and got Al Jefferson to eventually start at the PF position. I do love the idea of them playing together since they are both physical players.

C – Al Jefferson – I will tell you this right now, Al Jefferson’s days of flying under the radar are officially over. I will also tell you that I firmly believe that Al Jefferson is a better power forward than Carlos Boozer. Let’s take a look at the last three seasons for each player, remember Al Jefferson is coming off an ACL injury from 2008.

Al Jefferson - 20.4 PPG – 11.0 RPG – 1.86 TO – 1.56 BPG - 50% FG%

Carlos Boozer – 18.9 PPG – 10.6 RPG – 2.45 TO – 0.4 BPG – 53% FG%

Let me remind you that Al Jefferson put up those stats on a team that never won more than 20 games the past three seasons. You tell me if we will miss a beat? There is a reason my friends and I gave Boozer the nickname “swinging door.” Anytime Fabricio Oberto has a double double on your starting power forward that is supposedly an all-star it’s time to cut the rope. You read it here first; Al Jefferson will have a monster year. No more kicking it out to d-leaguers for three pointers.

BENCH

CJ Miles – People will tell you that I am not the biggest CJ Miles fan and I’ve ranked him in the top 5 of my least favorite Jazz players of all-time. I loved when the Oklahoma City Thunder signed him to an offer sheet and cried harder when the Jazz resigned him. I hadn’t cried that hard since Saved by the Bell went off the air. With that being said, this has to be the year that CJ Miles breaks out. No more log jams at the SG position. CJ will be the first man off the bench to replace Raja Bell and he needs to prove he belongs there. There is no question that CJ has the talent, the athleticism, and the stroke. He’s just never had the smarts, and that’s because he’s still young. I just read that he’s only 23 and it feels like he’s been here since I was sporting girbaud jeans and a bowl cut. No, that wasn’t just last year either but I do miss the bowl cut. Bottom line, its CJ’s time to shine and I hope he proves me wrong.

Gordon Hayward – Please tell me that you think Gordon Hayward looks like the kid off the front of Mad Magazine? Google it and tell me, I can’t stop laughing. I saw Hayward play at Butler last year and in the NCAA tournament. He was easily one of the top players in the country last year. I’ve heard numerous reports that the reason the Jazz let Korver walk was to give more time to Hayward. I’m concerned about his strength and durability for an 82 game NBA season. I was extremely impressed with his versatility and handling the rock. If the kid can shoot better than the 29% he shot from the college three point line than he could be a real steal for the Jazz.

Jeremy Evans – Where do the Jazz keep finding these 2^nd round picks? Jeremy Evans is freak of nature and quite possibly could be the biggest surprise of the 2010 draft. He can defend, jump out of the gym, and rebound the basketball. The only problem is that he weighs about as much as my 10 year old nephew. He had a put back dunk in a summer league game that almost made me execute a bowel movement, it was that good. I get that same feeling after I eat at Tepanyakis. Evans could be a huge spark off the bench for us, someone that could come in and give us shot blocking when Kirilenko needs a blow. With Hayward and Evans selected, I’ve been quite pleased with the progress of both the rookies.

Kyrylo Fesenko - Besides Al Jefferson, this is the other the Jazz man that has me interested this year. He dropped 20 pounds in the offseason, he’s developed a nice little jump hook from five to eight feet, and he’s got himself a real haircut. Plus the Jazz are paying a 7’1” 280 pound walrus practically peanuts. Guys his size don’t fall in your lap unless they are Greg Ostertag (Yes that sound you heard was a dry heave.) Fesenko could turn into a valuable asset for the Jazz if he contributes in two areas, clogging up the middle while blocking shots and rebound the basketball. Sure he’ll give you the occasional garbage points but I assure you that Fesenko will make a good living with the Jazz doing those two chores. We’ll need him come playoff time against guys like Tim Duncan, Yao Ming (if he recovers from his hang nail,) Pau Gasol (the human camel,) and Andrew Bynum.

Ronnie Price – I was happy to see the Jazz keep Ronnie Price along with Earl Watson. Price won’t give you much offensively but he plays defense like a little grasshopper. If you don’t know what I’m talking about than you may want to e-mail Luke Walton and ask him about it. Price will be the third point guard on this team behind Williams and Earl Watson but could find himself as the backup if Watson ever goes down.

Earl Watson – Watson has always been a solid player but he’s never really jumped off the page. I’ve watched him with multiple teams over the years and he always seems to adapt well to whatever system he plays in. I like him as the backup to Deron Williams. He brings stability, toughness, and the ability to run the offense. At times last year watching Price run the offense was like watching an M Night Shyamalan movie, you didn’t know what the hell was going on. Ok that was below the belt but you get my point. We haven’t had a solid backup point guard since, well, Howard Eisley I guess. Boy that was tough to type that.

Francisco Elson – I’m going to be honest, I haven’t seen much of Elson, and I don’t know if that’s a good thing. Then again, he played for the San Antonio Spurs and Denver Nuggets who are both stacked at the center position. Something the Jazz have never been stacked at unless you count Felton Spencer with Antoine Carr. Feel free to stop yourself from drinking the Pledge under your sink after reading that last line because they no longer play for us. For once I’m confident in the ability of our front line due to the fact that we have multiple seven footers. Even though he’ll probably be used in spot minutes, Elson could turn out to be quite a find for us.

Mehmet Okur – I feel bad for Okur and it’s due to the fact that for the last six years he had been our most durable player. When I saw him go down against the Nuggets I looked right at my wife and said “he just ruptured his Achilles,” and I was spot on. I was thinking he should be back by February but now I am hearing that he could be back as quick as December. The Jazz shouldn’t rush him back and I think we all know they won’t do that. We need Okur healthy for the end of the season and in the playoffs. He gives us another seven footer to throw at opposing post players and he stretches the floor opening up the low post for Al Jefferson to punish people. Okur will be a huge part of the Jazz this year and if he can return to the old form before his injury than our front line will be one of the best in the NBA.

Predictions

Utah Jazz – 52 -30 – 3^rd in the West and Northwest Division champions. I’m not sold on the Oklahoma City Thunder quite yet. The division title will run back through Salt Lake City.